Bitcoin vs stocks

Worked example

Over the five years to November 2026, bitcoin grew +5.5% a year, the S&P 500 +10.0% and the Nasdaq Composite +9.6%, compounded. Bitcoin's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.48 with the S&P 500 and 0.54 with the Nasdaq.

Yearly growth over each period

Compound yearly growth to the latest month all three series share, from one US dollar figure a month. The S&P 500 series we use covers only the last ten years.

Correlation of monthly returns over the last five years: 0.48 with the S&P 500 and 0.54 with the Nasdaq Composite. A value of 1 would mean they always moved together, 0 that their moves were unrelated and −1 that they always moved in opposite directions.

How it works

Yearly growth = (value at the end ÷ value at the start)^(1 ÷ years) − 1. Each month uses bitcoin's last daily close and each index's last daily close, from FRED's SP500 and NASDAQCOM series. Correlation is the Pearson coefficient of the month-on-month returns over the last 60 months. The calculator multiplies your amount by each series' end value ÷ its value in January of the start year.

Before you compare

Both indexes are price indexes: they leave out dividends, which have added to a stock investor's return. Fund fees and taxes are not counted either. The result depends heavily on the start month, and past growth says nothing about future growth.